xynkro
New member
When i was in JB, i picked up the New Sunday Times at 1 of the vendors while waiting for the carpark ticket to be paid, the headlines blaring
"(Special Focus) - Tsunami the next big one
Thai Meteorologist Dr. Smith Dharmasaroja who predicted the last Tsunami to devastate Thailand is now predicting this in a caption-
"Malaysia and Singapore next?-We are scheduled for another big earthquakein roughlythe same area and it coyuld send wavessurging throught the Starits of Mallaca and smash into Malaysia and Singapore". -Dr Smith Dharmasaloja
In 1998, Dr. Smith Dharmasaloja predicted a tsunami would hit Thailand in 2004. But his warning was ignored. Now, a Vice-Minister in the Office of the Thai Prime Minister gave another dire warning-a Tsunami is likely to strike Malaysia and Singapore.
Said Dr. Dharmasloja- "There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecastlarge earthquakes by looking at historical records".
Full excerpts from his interview by Sheridan Mahavera-
Q: How did you arrive at your prediction that another tsunamicould hit Malaysia and Singapore?
A: After stydying the 200year tsunami record, I found that there have been 12 tsunamis. The last big one before Dec 26occured in the Indian Ocean and it was a tsunami created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volacano122 years ago. Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 t0 100 year cycles.
Q: So according to the cycle of occurence, you expect another earthquake?
A: Near the Nicobar Islands there was an earthquake in 1941that measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one at 7.2. Bothe these had their epicenters North of the Dec 26 earthquakes (East of Sumatra). So according to these records, we are scheduled for another big earthquakein roughly the same area and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Mallaca and smash into Singapore and Malaysia.
Q: Will the epicenter be in the Straits of Mallaca?
A: The epicenter need not be in the Straits. It could be North of itand this is enough to send killer waves to both countries. In fact, I've made suggestions to the Indonesian government that it should not allow any human habitationon the Northern coastof Sumatra as these are the areas prone to be hit. The epeicenter of the last one was off the western coast of Sumatra. Malaysia was only hit by a secondarywave that richocheted off big primary waves that struck Thailand. If the epeicenter moves North,Then Malaysia will be hit by the primary waves.
Q: So we are overdue foa another big one?
A: We are definitley overduebased on a 100-year cycle and because this one is also close to shore.It will cause a lot of damage. We have to learn the characteristic of nature in order to live peacefully with it. That is why Thailand is trying to set-up a warning system. We have build 62 warning towers in all of the six provinces which were hard hit by lats year's disaster and we will be deploying bouysand scanners in the Andaman Sea next year.
Q: How long do we have before a tsunami hits us again? two, four, ten years?
A: I cannot say. How close the prediction correaltes to the cycle.
Q: Recently, some people spread text messages in Malaysia stating that a tsunami would hit us on Dec 26 again this year or maybe next year.
A: I know about that and these are iresponsible people who are basing their assumption on a recent interview I gave to a Singapore newspaper. Unfortunately, they read the article and gave theri own interpretation. But I never mentioned any specific date because that is impossible. If I could predict the date so accrately thenI would be a millionare (laughs).
Q: So what can we do, given the fact that we will be hit?
A: A good warning system can help.A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good because it gives you time to head to higher grounds. If you build strong enough structures,then maybe they can withstand the waves. You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance,for fishermen and ship owners, where there is a warning,they need to move their ships out to sea, and not deck them. This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami if you are in deep water. Government should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline such as by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo or mangroves.
Q: How can we protect buildings which lie along the coastlines?
A: You cannot care about property.It will be destroyed everytime there is a tsunami. Anything on the beach must be build on strong pillars and have no walls so that the waves can pass through.The lowest floor of the structure must also be higher than the height of the last recorded tsunami.
Q: How do you predict earthquakes and tsunamis?
A: I have studying earthquakes and tsunamis for 25 years and have gathered information and historical records from the United States and Japan.There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecast by looking at historical records.
Q: These earthqaukes result form movements of the Tectonic plates?
A: In geology you can see the movement of plates that make up the Earth's crust. In our region of the Indian Ocean,there is the Eurasian plate and Indian plate beneath it. In the Dec 26 Tsunami, the Indian Plate was raised about 40 meters and that created the tsunami. Such large vertical movements of the plates are caused by accumulated energy that emanates fronm the Earth's mantle, below the crust. When the energy is released, it creates abig movement of the plates. The energy is accumulated over time and is released every 40 to 50 years.
Q: Only earthquakes which involves vertical movements in the Earth's plates will causes a tsunami?
A: Correct. In March this year,there was another large earthquake whose epeicenter was south of the Dec 26 tremor. But this one did not cause a tsunami because the plates moved parallel to each other, there was no vertical movement. But there is something else that might cause another tsunamiin our neighborhood. Recently, British and Russian scientists have discovered an underwater mountain range measuring about two kilometers in height in the Andaman stretching from Rangoon, in Myanmar to the Nicobar islands. It was created by the accumulation of sediments from rivers in Myanmar and Bangladesh. As it lies in the faultline,any moderate earthquake measuring 5 on the Richter scale or more can cause the mountain to topple and this can cause a tsunami. So you see, we don't have to wait for a major earthquake to see another tsunami.
Q: Did your government and your people think you were crazy when you predicted the Dec 26 tsunami in 1998?
A: They criticised me heavily.They said I was going to destroy Phuket's tourism industry. But I was the Director-General of the Meteorological Department at that time and it was my duty to warn people about these things.(laughs)
Q: How dod you feel when you were proven right?
A: (laughs) I had to come back to work for the governmentafter retiring 11 years ago.I'm now in charge of building the warning system. But I wish I was wrong(about the prediction). When I first went public with the prediction, I had written a warning letter and sent out copies to the Prime Minister's office, the Ministry I was under and the authorities in six provinces. Now, relative of those who died in the disaster want me to give them the original copy so that they can sue the Thailand Government for negligence.
what are your 2cents on these guys?
"(Special Focus) - Tsunami the next big one
Thai Meteorologist Dr. Smith Dharmasaroja who predicted the last Tsunami to devastate Thailand is now predicting this in a caption-
"Malaysia and Singapore next?-We are scheduled for another big earthquakein roughlythe same area and it coyuld send wavessurging throught the Starits of Mallaca and smash into Malaysia and Singapore". -Dr Smith Dharmasaloja
In 1998, Dr. Smith Dharmasaloja predicted a tsunami would hit Thailand in 2004. But his warning was ignored. Now, a Vice-Minister in the Office of the Thai Prime Minister gave another dire warning-a Tsunami is likely to strike Malaysia and Singapore.
Said Dr. Dharmasloja- "There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecastlarge earthquakes by looking at historical records".
Full excerpts from his interview by Sheridan Mahavera-
Q: How did you arrive at your prediction that another tsunamicould hit Malaysia and Singapore?
A: After stydying the 200year tsunami record, I found that there have been 12 tsunamis. The last big one before Dec 26occured in the Indian Ocean and it was a tsunami created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volacano122 years ago. Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 t0 100 year cycles.
Q: So according to the cycle of occurence, you expect another earthquake?
A: Near the Nicobar Islands there was an earthquake in 1941that measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one at 7.2. Bothe these had their epicenters North of the Dec 26 earthquakes (East of Sumatra). So according to these records, we are scheduled for another big earthquakein roughly the same area and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Mallaca and smash into Singapore and Malaysia.
Q: Will the epicenter be in the Straits of Mallaca?
A: The epicenter need not be in the Straits. It could be North of itand this is enough to send killer waves to both countries. In fact, I've made suggestions to the Indonesian government that it should not allow any human habitationon the Northern coastof Sumatra as these are the areas prone to be hit. The epeicenter of the last one was off the western coast of Sumatra. Malaysia was only hit by a secondarywave that richocheted off big primary waves that struck Thailand. If the epeicenter moves North,Then Malaysia will be hit by the primary waves.
Q: So we are overdue foa another big one?
A: We are definitley overduebased on a 100-year cycle and because this one is also close to shore.It will cause a lot of damage. We have to learn the characteristic of nature in order to live peacefully with it. That is why Thailand is trying to set-up a warning system. We have build 62 warning towers in all of the six provinces which were hard hit by lats year's disaster and we will be deploying bouysand scanners in the Andaman Sea next year.
Q: How long do we have before a tsunami hits us again? two, four, ten years?
A: I cannot say. How close the prediction correaltes to the cycle.
Q: Recently, some people spread text messages in Malaysia stating that a tsunami would hit us on Dec 26 again this year or maybe next year.
A: I know about that and these are iresponsible people who are basing their assumption on a recent interview I gave to a Singapore newspaper. Unfortunately, they read the article and gave theri own interpretation. But I never mentioned any specific date because that is impossible. If I could predict the date so accrately thenI would be a millionare (laughs).
Q: So what can we do, given the fact that we will be hit?
A: A good warning system can help.A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good because it gives you time to head to higher grounds. If you build strong enough structures,then maybe they can withstand the waves. You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance,for fishermen and ship owners, where there is a warning,they need to move their ships out to sea, and not deck them. This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami if you are in deep water. Government should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline such as by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo or mangroves.
Q: How can we protect buildings which lie along the coastlines?
A: You cannot care about property.It will be destroyed everytime there is a tsunami. Anything on the beach must be build on strong pillars and have no walls so that the waves can pass through.The lowest floor of the structure must also be higher than the height of the last recorded tsunami.
Q: How do you predict earthquakes and tsunamis?
A: I have studying earthquakes and tsunamis for 25 years and have gathered information and historical records from the United States and Japan.There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecast by looking at historical records.
Q: These earthqaukes result form movements of the Tectonic plates?
A: In geology you can see the movement of plates that make up the Earth's crust. In our region of the Indian Ocean,there is the Eurasian plate and Indian plate beneath it. In the Dec 26 Tsunami, the Indian Plate was raised about 40 meters and that created the tsunami. Such large vertical movements of the plates are caused by accumulated energy that emanates fronm the Earth's mantle, below the crust. When the energy is released, it creates abig movement of the plates. The energy is accumulated over time and is released every 40 to 50 years.
Q: Only earthquakes which involves vertical movements in the Earth's plates will causes a tsunami?
A: Correct. In March this year,there was another large earthquake whose epeicenter was south of the Dec 26 tremor. But this one did not cause a tsunami because the plates moved parallel to each other, there was no vertical movement. But there is something else that might cause another tsunamiin our neighborhood. Recently, British and Russian scientists have discovered an underwater mountain range measuring about two kilometers in height in the Andaman stretching from Rangoon, in Myanmar to the Nicobar islands. It was created by the accumulation of sediments from rivers in Myanmar and Bangladesh. As it lies in the faultline,any moderate earthquake measuring 5 on the Richter scale or more can cause the mountain to topple and this can cause a tsunami. So you see, we don't have to wait for a major earthquake to see another tsunami.
Q: Did your government and your people think you were crazy when you predicted the Dec 26 tsunami in 1998?
A: They criticised me heavily.They said I was going to destroy Phuket's tourism industry. But I was the Director-General of the Meteorological Department at that time and it was my duty to warn people about these things.(laughs)
Q: How dod you feel when you were proven right?
A: (laughs) I had to come back to work for the governmentafter retiring 11 years ago.I'm now in charge of building the warning system. But I wish I was wrong(about the prediction). When I first went public with the prediction, I had written a warning letter and sent out copies to the Prime Minister's office, the Ministry I was under and the authorities in six provinces. Now, relative of those who died in the disaster want me to give them the original copy so that they can sue the Thailand Government for negligence.
what are your 2cents on these guys?
